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German real estate prices developed unevenly in the first quarter of 2024. The trend towards stabilization from the previous quarter persists, with the pace of price decline slowing down. However, there are major differences depending on the region and residential segment. This is shown by the latest update of the German Real Estate Index GREIX, a joint project of the local expert committees (Gutachterausschüsse/GAAs)), ECONtribute, and the Kiel Institute. The transactions database of the GAAs, which contains notarized sales prices, are evaluated according to current scientific standards. All data for currently 19 cities and their neighborhoods are freely available at https://www.greix.de/.
“It is still too early to call a bottom in the German real estate market. Prices for apartments and single-family homes are continuing to stabilize and are moving sideways. Regionally, however, the markets are quite volatile with both upward and downward fluctuations, likely due to the persistently low number of transactions,” says Moritz Schularick, President of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (Kiel Institute).
Compared to the previous quarter (Q1 2024 vs. Q4 2023), prices for apartments fell only slightly by 0.7 percent. Prices for single-family homes remained practically constant.
In contrast, the fall in prices for multi-family homes accelerated significantly with a drop of 10.5 percent, compared to around 5 percent in the previous quarter. In this specific segment, though, volatility is notably high due to the limited number of transactions, resulting in restricted informative value.
Due to the low inflation rates of 0.5 percent compared to the previous quarter, the inflation-adjusted price changes across all market segments show only slight decreases. For the first time in around two years, real estate is hardly losing any additional value in terms of current purchasing power.
Compared to the same quarter of the previous year, Q1 2023, all residential segments are down significantly, although the rate of decline is now falling for the second time in a row, which is also a sign of stabilization.
The number of real estate transactions remains at a low level. Compared to the same quarter of the previous year, the number rose slightly by 10 percent. However, the average across all residential segments is only around 40 percent of the average level seen in 2019 to 2021.
Top-7 cities
In Germany's 7 largest cities (Berlin, Düsseldorf, Frankfurt a. M., Hamburg, Cologne, Munich, Stuttgart), the situation on the real estate market is calming down and prices for apartments are only changing moderately compared to the previous quarter (Q1 2024 vs. Q4 2023).
Cologne (+2.4 percent) and Frankfurt (+2.2 percent) saw an upward trend, while Berlin (-1.9 percent) and Stuttgart (-1.4 percent) saw a downward trend. Hamburg remained relatively stable (+0.1 percent).
Note: No data for Q1 2024 is available for Düsseldorf and Munich in this GREIX update.
Prices in Cologne have remained the most stable in terms of value, with a drop of only 5.7 percent compared to the peak at the beginning/mid-2022. Berlin follows with a decline of 8.2 percent. Munich (-17.1 percent) and Stuttgart (-21.8 percent) recorded the biggest slump. The average decline across all 19 cities in the GREIX is 13 percent.
Other cities
Beyond the top-7 cities, apartment prices exhibit significant quarter-on-quarter inconsistency, marked by highly volatile fluctuations, likely attributable to the limited number of transactions.
It is noteworthy that all eastern cities in the GREIX recorded a decline. In contrast, some western cities, such as Wiesbaden (+6.0 percent) and Münster (+4.1 percent), saw a decent increase.
“Supply and demand are still not coming together on the real estate market. The 'great buying opportunity' that is now being proclaimed in some places also appears to be driven by strong self-interest. Regionally, there is still a clear downward trend in some cases, and especially measured in terms of current purchasing power, real estate has been a quite poor investment in terms of value development over the last two years,” says Schularick.
Methodological note:
Price changes in GREIX data are calculated based on index values using the hedonic regression method. This mitigates price distortions that often occur when using average prices per square meter. For instance, the sale of a considerable number of high-priced properties, attributed to factors such as larger size, prime location, or superior condition, can inflate average prices per square meter. However, such fluctuations may not reflect a general increase in real estate value. By calculating an index, specific property characteristics do not cause upward or downward distortions in the price trend.
About the GREIX:
What is the GREIX?
The GREIX is a real estate price index for Germany based on the sales price collection of the local expert committees, which contains notarized sales prices. It tracks the price development of individual cities and neighborhoods back to 1960 and is based on more than two million transaction data. The dataset can be used to analyze long-term trends in the real estate markets and to place current developments in a historical context.
What data and methods are used to create the indices?
The data collection and evaluation take place in cooperation with the local expert committees. All real estate transactions are recorded in full. The price development is calculated according to the latest scientific standards and statistical methods (hedonic regression method). The GREIX thus stands for the highest scientific data quality.
Who finances the GREIX?
GREIX is financed by public funding and is a project of the Bonn-Cologne Cluster of Excellence ECONtribute, which is funded by the DFG, and the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, in cooperation with the local expert committees. Its aim is to increase price transparency in the real estate market. Different price indices for 18 cities are freely accessible at www.greix.de (https://www.greix.de/). Additional cities will gradually be added to the data set.
Media Contact:
Mathias Rauck
Press Officer
T +49 431 8814-411
mathias.rauck@ifw-kiel.de
Kiel Institute for the World Economy
Kiellinie 66 | 24105 Kiel | Germany
T +49 431 8814-1
E info@ifw-kiel.de
www.ifw-kiel.de
Jonas Zdrzalek
Research Project Greix –
German Real Estate Index
jonas.zdrzalek@ifw-kiel.de
Steffen Zetzmann
Research Project Greix –
German Real Estate Index
steffen.zetzmann@ifw-kiel.de
Francisco Osswald do Amaral
ECONtribute
+49 228 73-60143
francisco.amaral@uni-bonn.de
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